Will Change be Enough for the Cleveland Indians in 2013?

7674622598_7d67eebcc0_c

The Tribe remains an enigma heading into the 2013 season. (Photo by Ben Krause © 2012, www.benckphotos.com)

Change: what the 2013 Cleveland Indians should embrace as their team motto.  And it comes as a much-needed reprieve to the re-heat, re-package, and re-serve mentality that has ruled the Tribe since 07’. I feel like I’ve been watching the same team for years now. That’s fine if you’re winning 90 games, but the Indians haven’t done that since that very same season. Insanity, defined as doing the same thing over and over, expecting different results. Something the Indians have perfected over the last 5 seasons.

So, gone is Manny Acta. Gone is Travis Hafner. The same goes for Grady Sizemore, Shin-Soo Choo, and the pitcher formerly known as Fausto Carmona, and I also have a feeling that if this season heads south before the All-Star break, Asdrubal Cabrera will be a goner as well (the Indians have 2011 1st round pick SS Francisco Lindor ready and waiting in AAA). While it’s sad seeing so many players you grow to like leave, realize that the core wasn’t working and change was needed. Maybe the front office is getting it after all.

Yankees at Orioles August 28, 2011

How will Nick Swisher perform as “the man” in Cleveland in 2013? (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

After years of spending next to nothing on free agents and ending up with bargain-bin players like Austin Kearns and Casey Kotchman, this year the Indians actually seem like an organization that wants to improve its team (I know, I can’t believe it either). They signed Nick Swisher to a 4 year $56 million contract (actually the largest contract the Indians have ever given to a free agent), Michael Bourn to a 4 year $48 million deal, and Brett Myers to a 1 year deal worth $7 million. Those were the big moves, but they also signed slugger Mark Reynolds, pitcher Scott Kasmir, who I feel might be their ace in the hole. It’s like someone abducted the Indians front office and replaced them with people who, oh I don’t know, actually want to win!

The moves the front office made in free agency, as well as signing a proven World Series winning coach in Terry Francona, both prove a new dedication to winning. Now, if those moves don’t get you excited about the Tribe, you shouldn’t call yourself an Indians fan. I don’t really care for the free agency moves as much as some people (paying Swisher & Bourn that much is risky). Nonetheless, you have to give this organization credit for realizing the past few years weren’t cutting it.

Francona represents the biggest and best change of the off-season for the Indians. He’ll bring a culture of winning to a team that sorely lacks it. I think his presence is a big part of the reason the Indians were so active in free agency. He’s a very good manager who gets the most out of his players, so people want to play for the guy. That’s irreplaceable. I think this will make the biggest difference for the Tribe in 2013. The Indians will feel like a different team this year.

For the first time in years I can’t wait for baseball season, and it’s because of all these changes that the organization has made. All of this change is encouraging, but you also have to hope these new pieces fit together. So let’s take a look at the current roster and what this all adds up to.

Lineup

1. Michael Bourn           CF

2. Asdrubal Cabrera     SS

3. Jason Kipnis             2B

4. Nick Swisher            1B

5. Michael Brantley       LF

6. Carlos Santana        C

7. Mark Reynolds         DH

8. Lonnie Chisenhall    3B

9. Drew Stubbs            RF

I think this lineup is much improved from last year’s group. Although they’ll strikeout in bunches, I think they have nowhere to go but up from the 13th ranked offense in the AL last year. A lot hinges on newcomers Swisher, Bourn, and Reynolds performing as advertised, but I think the development of Kipnis, Santana, and Chisenhall is more vital to this team’s success. Mike Aviles, Lou Marson, Ryan Raburn, and Jason Giambi (yea, this dude is still playing), will comprise the bench to start the season.

Rotation

1. Justin Masterson

2. Ubaldo Jimenez

3. Brett Myers

4. Zach McAllister

5. Scott Kasmir

The Wind-Up

Justin Masterson will have to anchor the Indians starting rotation again in 2013. (Photo credit: PianoWow)

I’m sure the starting rotation keeps Francona up at night, but I think he’ll get the best out of this group. The Indians pitching staff had the worst ERA in the AL at 4.78 last year, so there is plenty of room for improvement. Brett Myers is old, but he reminds me of good ol’ Paul Byrd; a solid, crafty vet, who will put up quality starts and help mentor some of these young pitchers. If Scott Kasmir can come even close to the potential he had when he first came into the league, he’ll certainly improve this unit. You can expect Trevor Bauer (acquired in the Choo trade) and Carlos Carrasco to join the rotation at some point during the year.

Bullpen

Chris Perez

Vinnie Pestano

Joe Smith

Matt Albers

Bryan Shaw

Nick Hagadone

Rich Hill

Bullpens are tough to gauge, that’s why teams never seem to stop acquiring relief pitchers. Although, I do think the Indians have a good core unit with Vinnie Pestano, Joe Smith, and closer Chris Perez.

All of these changes have injected the Indians with more talent than any Indians team in the past couple years. The starting rotation is still a big question mark and will really decide whether this team will be playing baseball in October. Masterson and Ubaldo will have to anchor the pitching staff for it to be successful; if they don’t it’ll be a grueling summer. In a long season full of unpredictability two things are certain: this team will be in plenty of high scoring games and they’ll really fun to watch.

The Cleveland Browns 2013 Draft Options

Predicting draft picks is about as easy as picking your NCAA bracket (My Final Four picks are Louisville, Ohio State, Michigan, and Indiana; I have Michigan winning it all). Sadly they’re also usually just as inaccurate. I will not be doing a mock draft. I will, however, be picking a couple guys who I think the Browns will/should take for each pick.

In a perfect world I would have them trading back to recoup the 2nd round pick they gave up for selecting Josh Gordon in the supplemental draft. Since that’s very difficult to predict, I’ll keep them in the draft slots they’re in now. As of today the Browns only have a total of six picks, so I do expect them to trade down at some point during the draft. They have the 6th pick (1st rd pick 6), the 68th (3rd rd pick 6), the 104th (4th rd pick 7), the 139th (5th rd pick 6), the 173rd (6th rd pick 5, from the Eagles) and the 175th (6th rd pick 7).

 

Round 1, Pick 6:

Dee Milliner, CB, Alabama– He would be my ideal pick if I was drafting for the Browns. Cornerback is the team’s biggest need, and Milliner is the best corner prospect in the draft. Do I need to elaborate? The only question is: will he be there at six?

Chance Warmack, OG, Alabama– Although he is more likely to be there for the Browns at six, I don’t think they’ll draft him this high. This is a shame, because he’s one of the best guard prospects to come out of college in the last 10 years. Plus, could you imagine pairing him back up with Trent Richardson for the next seven years? Talk about a dominant run game.

Ziggy Ansah, DE/OLB, BYU- This would be a high-risk/high-reward type of pick. He only started one year of college football, but he was ultra-productive and has experience playing defensive end and outside linebacker. I view him as a Jason Pierre-Paul type of player (not much college playing time, but very productive and athletic). He has the risk of being another Vernon-Gholston-freak-athlete-bust as well. Selecting him at six would be a little bit of a stretch, but Dion Jordan (my favorite defensive end) will be drafted before the Browns pick.

 

Round 3, Pick 6:

Quarterback– I really don’t care who: Tyler Bray from Tennessee, Mike Glennon from NC State, Tyler Wilson from Arkansas. Just draft a signal caller to develop behind Brandon Weeden. I’ve seen rumors that the Browns are going after the Patriots backup Ryan Mallet. If they can get him before the draft, great. They obviously won’t need to draft a quarterback here.

Vance McDonald, TE, Rice– It’s simple. He’s big, strong, and fast. Rob Chudzinski loves utilizing tight ends, so expect one to be drafted earlier rather than later.

Barrett Jones, OL, Alabama– Versatility is the name of the game with this offensive lineman. He has experience playing all over the line, and he would be a good addition to the Browns. You’ve got to love this type of player.

 

Round 4 pick 7:

Dwayne Gratz, CB, Connecticut- Projected to go around the 4th round, his good combine results might push him out of reach in the 4th for the Browns. In today’s NFL you can never have enough corners. Even if they select Dee Milliner in round one, I wouldn’t rule out another corner at some point during the draft.

Terry Hawthorne, CB, Illinois- Another cornerback whose stock is on the rise. Big and fast (see a pattern here?).

Phillip Thomas, S, Fresno State- He had eight interceptions in 2012 for Fresno State. Pairing a big ball-hawking safety with TJ Ward would be good a compliment to each other.

 

Round 5 Pick 6:

Caleb Sturgis, K, Florida- This will be the first time the Browns are in need of a kicker since their return in 1999. They might as well draft the best one available.

Josh Boyce, WR, TCU- Typical “burner” type receiver. He would have gone higher if he returned for his final year of college. He would pair well with Travis Benjamin, giving the Browns two receivers who could stretch the field.

Blaize Foltz, G, TCU- You start building great teams in the trenches. The Browns need depth along the offensive line and Foltz is a solid run and pass blocker with good size.

 

Round 6 Picks 5 & 7:

Quanterus Smith, DE/OLB, Western Kentucky– A torn ACL hurt his draft stock, but 12 sacks during the 2012 season show that when he’s healthy, he’s productive. The 6th round is where you take fliers on players with a high-risk/high-reward potential (not in round one where I want them to take Ziggy).

Travis Howard, CB, Ohio State- I had to put one homer pick in the mix. I think Travis Howard has good size for a cornerback, and his coverage was solid all year for the Buckeyes. He would be a good late round pick to help add depth to the defensive backfield.

Marcus Lattimore, RB, South Carolina- This pick might be a luxury the Browns don’t have since they only have six picks. Although, I think they are in a good position to take a flier on an injured running back, because for the time being, they’re set with Trent Richardson, Montario Hardesty and Chris Ogbonnaya. But could you imagine a back field of T-Rich and Lattimore!?

 

Essentially, the Browns need to draft a corner back and guard to fill their holes. A safety, quarterback, and more offensive line depth would be my priority for the remaining selections. If they can use their leftover picks to add some depth to the offensive line, they’ll be in good shape for the 2013 season.

 

 

 

The 2013 Cleveland Browns: Reasons to be Optimistic

It hasn’t always been easy to be a Browns fan, in fact, it’s NEVER been easy. Since their return in 1999, the Browns have made one playoff appearance and had only two winning seasons. I shouldn’t even mention that they are one of four teams to never even make the Super Bowl.

I’m not about to tell everyone that 2013 is the year that all this will change, because it’s not. The last eighteen years have been grueling, to say the least, but 2013 represents hope for the future and a new era in the Cleveland Browns organization. This year is simply a stepping stone to years of sustained success for Browns football.

This is not blind optimism that I have for the Cleveland Browns; my optimism is only based on my view of recent steps towards consistency. I’m not talking about consistency in the W-L columns (that will come); but in the front office- the ownership. And already this front office has proven its competency in the free agent signing period by addressing the team’s biggest need: linebacker.

Only when the owner, president, and general manager are set and stable can you start to have a winning team. How do they expect their players to win consistently if they have to change coaches every two years? With Owner Jimmy Haslam, CEO Joe Banner, VP Player Personnel Michael Lombardi, and Head Coach Rob Chudzinski in place, the Browns front office structure looks better than it has… since I was born. Jimmy Haslam alone has to give hope to my fellow Browns fans. As a minority owner of the Pittsburgh Steelers, he was part of one of the most stable franchises in pro sports (sorry Browns fans, but it’s true). Seeing what that stability does to a team’s success gives me hope that he will use that knowledge towards helping the Browns become a consistent contender.

Front office stability is only part of the equation. To win in the NFL you need talented players on the field, and the Browns’ current roster showcases more talent than at any point since 1999. The previous regime left the Browns in decent shape, and at the start of last season the Browns had the third youngest roster in the NFL, at an average age of 25.62. Although a 5-11 season last year might not scream talent, this team has it in spades.

Let’s start with the defense: our front seven is extremely young and talented. Our three d-line starters (assuming they run the 3-4 most of the time in Ray Horton’s new defense) are Ahtyba Rubin (DE, 26), Phil Taylor (NT, 24) and Desmond Bryant (DE, 27), with Billy Winn and John Hughes serving as depth along the line. The D-line is a stacked unit, which should be set for the next five years. The linebacker corps are our most improved unit so far through free agency, with starters D’Qwell Jackson (ILB, 29), James-Michael Johnson (ILB, 23), Jabaal Sheard (OLB, 23) and Paul Kruger (OLB, 27). The Browns have also brought in LB Quentin Groves, who is familiar with Ray Horton’s defense having played for him with the Cardinals last year. I can even see the Browns selecting another linebacker in the draft, because you can never have enough rush linebackers in a 3-4 defense.

On to the secondary (now their biggest weakness on defense). Their starting corners are Joe Haden (CB, 23) and Buster Skrine (CB, 23); again, this unit still needs a little help. The starting safeties are Usama Young (FS, 27) and TJ Ward (SS, 26). The Browns’ oldest defensive starter is 29! If they can sure up their secondary, this is a top 10 defense in the NFL for the next five years.

Their offense is just as young, and I view them as only a couple years away from being playoff caliber. With Norv Turner handling the play-calling, this group will improve on its 19 PPG last year, which ranked 24th in the NFL. I’ll start with the most important position of them all: quarterback. Brandon Weeden (29) is in his second year with the Browns, but his first under Norv Turner’s new offense. Should we expect a step backwards from Weeden? I don’t think so, because in Turner’s previous offensive coordinator gigs, his offenses have always improved upon his arrival. His tutelage will only help Weeden.

The starters on the O-line are; Joe Thomas (LT, 28), John Greco (LG, 27), Alex Mack (C, 27), Shawn Lauvao (RG, 25) and Mitchell Schwartz (RT, 23). They need to upgrade the guard position, but this unit is already one of the stronger ones in the NFL. The wide receivers are led by Josh Gordon (WR1, 21) and Greg Little (WR2, 23), with Travis Benjamin (23) serving as the slot receiver. Josh Gordon has all the potential in the world and he’s going to be a good number one receiver for a long time. I might like this group more than most people, and I think they’ll turn some heads in a second year together with Brandon Weeden. Trent Richardson (21) looks to be an all-world running back, with backups Montario Hardesty (26) and Chris Ogbonnaya (26). All-in-all, a solid young group.

The tight end position is the biggest question mark outside of a second starting corner, but right now Jordan Cameron (24) and Gary Barnidge (27) are mainly it. Look for the Browns to add to this position soon, since new Head Coach Chud loves utilizing tight ends.

The oldest starter on offense is 29. I’ll say it again, this is a young team! I do not expect a top 10 offense this year. I do think the offense will be improved, but there will be plenty hiccups. If only I had more faith in Weeden, I would like the Browns as a dark horse to make the playoffs.

With the big free agency moves out of the way for the Browns, they can now concentrate on the draft to fill the rest of their holes. Since they got their biggest need via free agency, they have plenty of options come draft time. I like Dee Milliner, a CB out of Alabama, with the 6th pick. Some other options are improving the O-line with Chance Warmack, a guard out of Alabama. Drafting Cordarrelle Patterson from Tennessee would be a huge boost for the receiving corps, or they could decide to add another linebacker like Dion Jordan from Oregon or Ezekiel Anash from BYU.

The Browns have already used their second rounder in this draft on Josh Gordon in the supplemental draft last summer. So, trading back with someone interested in Geno Smith is also a possibility. The Browns will, sadly, have to look for a new kicker for the first time since their return. So expect them to draft one of those as well.

With such a young team before they even draft this year, the Browns look to be in their best shape since the late 80’s. They have cap space to add key pieces over the next couple years as this team evolves into a legitimate playoff contender. We have a passionate owner who wants to win and a roster full of young hungry players. There are question marks. There is much more work to be done, but I just want Browns fans to realize that there is light at the end of the tunnel and it’s closer than many people think. So, here’s to a Cleveland Browns Super Bowl in…  2015!